GBTA business travel trends for 2027: What businesses need to know

Annabel Ausmus
Aug 6
5 min read

Business travel pricing is expected to become more manageable in 2027, but organisations should not plan for a return to earlier cost levels.

According to the GBTA 2027 Global Business Travel Forecast, the sharpest pricing pressure falls in 2026 as the market absorbs higher fuel prices, constrained capacity, rising labour costs and uneven regional demand.

The pace of growth is forecast to slow in 2027. However, structural factors including labour costs, aircraft shortages and sustainability requirements will continue to support a higher travel cost base.

For Australian businesses, the central planning question is not whether business travel will become cheaper. It is how quickly individual travel categories will moderate and whether current budgets reflect the new pricing environment.

Budget for relief, not a return to previous prices

The report describes 2027 as a period of normalisation, not reversal.

Fuel prices are expected to ease from their 2026 peak, reducing some pressure on airfares. But labour costs are more persistent because they are often supported by multi-year agreements and statutory wage requirements.

The report identifies labour as the dominant non-fuel cost driver across airlines, hotels, ground transportation and airport services. It notes that Qantas short-haul pilots are covered by an agreement providing an approximately 25% pay increase over five years.

Aircraft delivery delays are also maintaining capacity constraints. The global aircraft order backlog stood at approximately 18,100 aircraft in May 2026, equal to around 60% of the active fleet. The report estimates an effective shortage of about 3,170 aircraft.

For procurement and finance teams, this means 2027 travel budgets should be based on current market conditions rather than historical price assumptions.

Air spend remains the greatest source of volatility

Global blended airfares are forecast to increase by 4.7% in 2026 before growth moderates to 1.5% in 2027.

Global airfare category	2026 forecast	2027 forecast
Blended airfares	+4.7%	+1.5%
Economy airfares	+8.7%	+1.1%
Premium airfares	+9.5%	+2.2%

The report warns that budgets built on 2025 rates are likely to underestimate actual air spend, particularly for programs with significant long-haul or premium-cabin travel.

Asia-Pacific is experiencing some of the strongest airfare pressure. Average regional fares are forecast to increase by 6% in 2026. Economy fares are expected to rise by 9.2%, while premium fares are forecast to increase by 18.6%. In 2027, growth is expected to slow to 2.5% for economy and 2.4% for premium.

The report attributes Asia-Pacific airfare growth to economy demand increasing faster than fleet capacity, combined with strong long-haul demand and a constrained supply of widebody aircraft.

Airfare mix matters as much as the headline increase

The report forecasts that the global blended fare will reach US$756 in 2026, up 4.7%. Economy fares are expected to reach US$536, while premium fares increase to US$4,488.

Both cabin classes are rising faster than the blended average because ticket purchasing is shifting towards economy as travellers and travel managers respond to higher prices and constrained budgets.

If the 2025 cabin mix remained unchanged, the report estimates that the global blended fare would be closer to US$787 rather than US$756.

This distinction is important when evaluating travel program performance. A lower blended average fare may reflect travellers moving into lower cabins rather than successful supplier negotiations or falling market prices.

The report recommends locking in capacity and rates early on premium-heavy and corporate-heavy routes, where airlines have the greatest pricing power.

Hotel pricing requires a regional approach

Global hotel average daily rates are forecast to increase by 3.7% in 2026, from US$162 to US$168. Growth is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2027, taking the global average to US$171.

Regional differences are significant:

Regional hotel rate growth	2026	2027
Asia-Pacific	+5.0%	+2.1%
Europe, Middle East and Africa	+0.6%	0.0%
Latin America	+9.5%	+5.2%
North America	+3.2%	+1.5%

Asia-Pacific hotel average daily rates are forecast to rise from US$139 in 2025 to US$146 in 2026 and US$149 in 2027.

At a global level, hotel supply is helping to contain increases. The construction pipeline reached approximately 15,922 projects and 2.4 million rooms in late 2025, with around 2,600 new hotels expected to open in each of 2026 and 2027.

The report recommends considering multi-year hotel agreements while new supply is holding group rates below inflation.

Car rental costs are forecast to stabilise

Global car rental rates are expected to rise by 3.6% in 2026 before declining by 0.9% in 2027.

Asia-Pacific is the most expensive region covered by the forecast. Its average daily rental rate is expected to rise by 4% to US$57.70 in 2026, before declining slightly by 0.3% to US$57.50 in 2027.

Car rental pricing is shaped more by fleet discipline, vehicle acquisition costs and used-car market conditions than broad movements in travel demand.

A greater supply of off-lease vehicles is expected to reduce fleet costs and soften rates during 2027. However, rental operators are continuing to manage capacity carefully to support high utilisation and firm pricing.

Meetings and business events require closer spend scrutiny

Meetings and business events demand and budgets are rising, but higher budgets are largely maintaining quality rather than expanding programs.

The daily average cost per delegate is forecast to rise by 3% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, reaching US$267.

Food and beverage costs within managed event programs are increasing by approximately 5% to 8%, while production and labour costs are rising by 6% to 10%. Group room rates remain comparatively contained.

The report finds that larger, more production-intensive events are absorbing a growing share of total meeting budgets. It also notes that meetings differ from other travel categories because a greater proportion of spending is discretionary.

Organisations generally absorb necessary airfares and room rates, but they can make choices about the size and composition of their meetings portfolio.

What should corporate buyers, procurement managers and CFOs prioritise?

The report makes clear that a single inflation assumption is not sufficient for 2027 business travel budgeting.

Air, accommodation, car rental and meetings costs are moving at different rates. Regional variation is also significant, particularly for organisations operating across Asia-Pacific or managing international travel.

Priorities for 2027 include:

Rebase air budgets using current fare levels rather than 2025 prices.
Examine cabin mix when measuring average fare performance.
Plan separately for each travel category and region.
Secure rates and capacity early on premium-heavy routes.
Consider multi-year hotel and group agreements where appropriate.
Assess meeting costs according to event mix, scale and business value.
Monitor the risks that could push costs above the forecast baseline.

Key risks:

The report identifies renewed disruption to oil supply, another jet fuel spike, further aircraft delivery delays, faster sustainable aviation fuel cost increases and renewed currency volatility as key risks.

Actual travel program costs will also vary according to destination mix, booking behaviour, negotiated agreements, cabin and hotel class, trip duration, seasonality and program composition.

For procurement managers and CFOs, the 2027 opportunity is greater predictability. Cost pressure is expected to ease, but disciplined sourcing, accurate forecasting and category-level analysis will remain essential to protecting the value of business travel.

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