FACTS Aviation Futures Summit Session Summaries

Welcome to the FACTS 2025 Aviation Futures Summit session summaries.

Throughout the 2-day event we'll be sharing the key insights and takeaways from the Aviation Futures Summit on this page - so check back regularly to ensure you don't miss a thing!

JUMP TO DAY 2

Day 1: Tuesday 25 2025

10:10 Aviation Matters

Introduction

Peter Harbison, co-founder of Greener Airlines, examined the aviation market, declaring that the era of 'blind flying' - treating a flight as merely a fare and a schedule - is emphatically over. The aviation sector has transformed from a predictable logistical utility into a domain of strategic complexity. A convergence of structural pressures is now fundamentally reshaping airline operations, creating direct and significant challenges for corporate travel managers, procurement officers, and those responsible for their organisation's ESG targets. This shift demands a holistic and strategic approach from corporate professionals to successfully manage air travel in the future. It's a wake-up call for the corporate travel sector to step up its game and start flying smart, not just flying often.

Key Insights

· The Sustainability Imperative is hampered by a lack of government mandates and investment certainty for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production in Australia.

· Global supply chain bottlenecks for new, fuel-efficient aircraft are forcing airlines to keep older fleets in service, leading to an 'emissions lock-in' and higher fares.

· Despite appearing profitable, the airline sector remains profoundly fragile due to volatile fuel prices and operating with brutally thin margins.

· Australia’s highly concentrated domestic market (duopoly) weakens the incentive for innovation and contributes to elevated airfares. Sydney Airport's outdated slot allocation rules must be reviewed to unlock capacity and foster genuine competition, especially with the development of Western Sydney International Airport.

· A global workforce crisis across pilots, engineers, and ground crews is driving up labour costs, increasing operational risk, and contributing to flight delays and cancellations.

· Long-haul Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) are increasingly vital, targeting corporate and SME segments with competitive premium products and greater fuel efficiency.

· Advanced Aerial Mobility (AAM), or zero-emission electric aircraft, offers a viable, short-to-medium-term solution for cheap, high-frequency regional connectivity.

Takeaways

Ultimately, managing corporate air travel in this new era requires a strategic and holistic approach, which is far more complex than simply negotiating rates. Professionals can't just chase the cheapest fare; they need to become savvy strategists. The key talking points converge on the necessity to look beyond the immediate cost to assess the sustainability credentials of airline partners, effectively weigh the risk of operational fragility (e.g., delays from workforce shortages), and anticipate market shifts. Companies must be proactive and agile, positioning their travel programs to capitalise on new, disruptive forces. This includes embracing the rise of the long-haul LCCs and seriously considering investment in Advanced Aerial Mobility (AAM) for regional routes, lest Australia misses a massive opportunity. Successful procurement now hinges on informed, agile decision-making that addresses the full spectrum of costs, including environmental and operational risk, not just the sticker price.

11:45 Virgin Australia Fireside Chat

Introduction

In this candid discussion, Virgin Australia CMO Libby Minogue shared how the airline is strengthening its challenger-brand position through service, product upgrades, thoughtful pricing and new customer experiences. From pets-on-board to the Qatar Airways partnership and emerging AI capability, she outlined how VA is responding to market shifts while doubling down on value, care and choice for travellers.

Key Insights

• Virgin’s brand centres on service, value, choice and uplifting experiences, reflected in its people-centric messaging.

• The pets-on-board trial (four small pets per flight) has been “hugely successful”, selling out across Christmas and expanding nationally in 2025.

• The Qatar Airways partnership is performing strongly, with daily services from multiple cities and the ability to earn/burn across both networks.

• VA is not moving into NDC yet, preferring to observe market impacts before committing.

• AI is already used across revenue management, marketing and operations; VA will soon launch an agentic AI-powered virtual assistant.

• Corporate travel remains solid for Virgin, particularly in WA, driven by cost pressures and VA’s value-focused offering.

• VA is expanding its loyalty program with new tiers (Platinum Plus, Forever Gold) and additional earn/burn partners.

• Virgin sees governance, responsible AI use and human oversight as essential as customer expectations around digital experiences rise.

Takeaways

Virgin Australia is leaning into its strengths: human-centred service, competitive pricing, smart product differentiation and a growing international partnership footprint. With AI-enabled customer tools on the horizon and strong corporate momentum, VA is positioning itself as a modern, value-driven airline.

11:45 Benchmarking Trends

Introduction

This three-part benchmarking session featured Luxsho Logan (CIRIUM) on air market capacity, Sanjay Shenoy (Airline Metrics) on airfare movements and NDC, and Joanne Cohen (STR) on accommodation performance and outlook. Together they delivered a comprehensive snapshot of how capacity, pricing, demand and traveller behaviour are evolving - and what it means for corporate travel programs.

Key Insights

• Global airline capacity has fully recovered, sitting ~9% above 2019 - but growth is uneven; trans-Pacific and Chinese international capacity remain significantly below pre-COVID.

• Australian domestic capacity is still below 2019, but international capacity has surged, shifting the market from 37% to 45% international share over 20 years.

• Major growth markets include Chinese domestic (+30%), Brazil, Europe and the US, while intra-Asia short haul has only just returned to 2019 levels.

• NDC adoption shows Qantas plateauing (~39% domestic, 22% international) and Singapore Airlines nearing 50%, driven largely by short-haul markets.

• Australian domestic fares show a split: business class down (–6% to –14%), economy up (+6% to +10%), with Virgin particularly aggressive on pricing.

• International fares remain resilient; US and Europe show mild softness, while Japan and parts of Asia are up strongly, especially in business class.

• Hotel performance is robust: Australia ranks 7th globally for RevPAR, with strong rate and occupancy growth across most markets.

• Events drive pricing spikes - Taylor Swift, F1, British Lions and Sydney Marathon -produced record occupancy and rates in Sydney and Melbourne.

• Regional Australian hotels outpace capital cities in rate growth vs 2019, driven by leisure, remote work and event-led travel.

• Supply remains tight: major cities show limited future room growth, with Adelaide the standout (+17% pipeline), meaning high rates are likely to persist.

Takeaways

Capacity is returning - but not evenly. Airfares remain structurally higher in many markets, NDC adoption is patchy, and hotel rates continue to climb on the back of strong demand and constrained supply. For buyers, benchmarking matters more than ever: static contracts are losing relevance, event-driven spikes are unavoidable, and destination and supplier choices must be backed by data. The outlook into 2026 remains strong, but so too do pricing pressures - making proactive planning essential.

14:15 Western Sydney Airport

Introduction

In this highly anticipated update, Matt Duffy (COO Western Sydney Airport) outlined the scale, ambition and progress of Western Sydney Airport (Nancy-Bird Walton Airport) ahead of its 2026 opening. Positioned as Australia’s first purpose-built 24/7 major airport, it promises major capacity uplift, seamless passenger experiences, advanced tech, and strong community and economic benefits for Western Sydney — now one of the country’s fastest-growing regions.

Key Insights

• Massive new capacity: Largest uplift since Tullamarine - opening with 10m passengers, scalable to 82m; 24/7 operations enable new schedules and global connectivity.

• Customer-first design: Simple navigation, biometric processing, high-tech baggage systems, disability-inclusive facilities, and architecture inspired by the Blue Mountains.

• Economic and community impact: Western Sydney is Australia’s third-largest economy; the airport will support billions in tourism growth and create significant local jobs.

• Airline and cargo commitments: Qantas, Jetstar, Air New Zealand and Singapore Airlines confirmed; cargo operations begin mid-2026 with major freight capacity.

• Sustainability ambition: Fossil-fuel-free infrastructure, EV-ready airside, rooftop solar, and future-proofing for SAF production and on-site blending.

Takeaways

Western Sydney Airport is being built as a future-proof aviation hub, combining smart technology, sustainable design and 24-hour operations to reshape how Greater Sydney travels. With strong airline engagement, major cargo capability and deep ties with the local community, it’s set to unlock new routes, new economic opportunities and a dramatically improved passenger experience from 2026 onwards.

14:20 Qantas Business Rewards Insights for SMEs

Introduction

In this upbeat session, Nick Hurditch (Qantas) walked SMEs through the full value of Qantas Business Rewards (QBR) - a loyalty and savings program designed specifically for small and medium businesses. With SMEs now travelling faster than corporates, QBR helps them access discounts usually reserved for big business, earn double rewards, and turn everyday expenses into powerful points balances.

Key Insights

• Savings scale up fast - QBR flight discounts range from 6% to 10%, with higher tiers earned via points from flights, hotels and car hire.

• Double rewards every trip - employees earn their usual QFF points/status, and the business earns 20–40% bonus QBR points, plus travellers get 250 bonus points per booking.

• Earn points on everyday business spend - fuel (BP Plus), hotels, car hire, credit cards, utilities and 50+ SME-focused partners.

• Flexible rewards & recognition - businesses use points for flights, upgrades, gifts or staff rewards, with Level 3 offering Gold Accelerator fast-track status.

• One-stop SME travel platform - the QBR portal enables booking flights, hotels and cars, managing travellers and cards, viewing travel funds, applying policy and tracking points in one place.

Takeaways

QBR gives SMEs access to big-business perks: real savings, dual reward earning, broad partner benefits and an integrated travel-management platform that removes booking friction. Nick’s key message: SMEs are leaving value on the table - and QBR is the fastest, easiest way to claim it.

14:45 Qantas Fireside Chat

Introduction

Qantas’ CEO of International and Freight, Cam Wallace, joined aviation commentator Peter Harbison for a lively fireside chat. The discussion gave travel professionals a candid look at the national carrier's strategic direction, covering everything from its massive 200+ aircraft fleet renewal to the push for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and the ongoing rollout of the New Distribution Capability (NDC). Wallace confirmed the excitement around the new aircraft, noting, “It’s the biggest fleet renewal we’ve ever had … It’s a really great time to be at Qantas” and stressed that the airline is evolving its offerings to better serve both premium and price-sensitive business segments. The talk reinforced Qantas's commitment to long-term growth and reform in the Australian market.

Key Insights

• Massive Fleet Renewal: Qantas is undertaking its largest-ever renewal, adding over 200 aircraft, including XLRs, 787s, and A350s.

• A321XLR's Corporate Value: The XLR offers "wide-body range with narrow-body economics", with 16 aircraft configured with lie-flat business class seats for new domestic and Asian routes.

• Project Sunrise progressing: Nonstop flights (e.g., Sydney–London) using the A350-1000ULR are planned for 2027.

• SAF Challenge is Local: Qantas aims for 10% SAF usage by 2030, but a lack of domestic supply is the key challenge, requiring a "level playing field" with competitors.

• Softening Corporate Demand: Domestic corporate travel is still growing but at a slower rate than forecast, prompting Qantas to make capacity adjustments.

• NDC Rollout Ahead of Target: Wallace stated the NDC implementation is "well ahead of our business case" and is a necessary platform for future pricing and personalisation.

• NDC Future-Proofs Qantas for AI: He argued that NDC is the "right platform" to accelerate AI utilisation, enabling dynamic, personalised retailing.

• Dual-Brand Strategy: The group is "very comfortable with our dual-brand strategy," with Jetstar becoming increasingly relevant to price-sensitive SME travellers.

Takeaways

The key takeaway for corporate travel professionals is that Qantas is betting big on premiumisation and flexibility. The future arrival of the A321XLR with lie-flat seats is a game-changer, opening up lucrative routes and challenging the traditional domestic premium offering. While the domestic corporate market growth has softened, Qantas is not retreating, instead focusing on "integrated value" through its dual-brand strategy, making Jetstar a serious contender for the SME dollar.

The NDC rollout is succeeding commercially and is viewed as the critical foundation for Qantas to plug into AI and dynamic retailing, ensuring they avoid being stuck with legacy systems. Finally, the pressure on SAF is real. Qantas is developing tools to help corporates measure their carbon exposure as an immediate response to the lack of Australian supply, making the carrier's sustainability efforts a collaborative challenge for all business travel managers. Qantas's message is clear: they are evolving, and they expect their partners to come along for the ride.

Day 2: Wednesday 26 2025

09:00 Greener Airlines Keynote

Introduction

In this candid keynote, Peter Harbison (greener Airlines) unpacked the critical sustainability challenges facing global aviation from rising emissions and stalled policy to slow SAF progress and the looming risk for corporates whose Scope 3 emissions depend on airline performance. Joining remotely, Stephen Snyder (SkyVC) offered a US perspective: pragmatic about political and investment hurdles but optimistic about innovation, funding momentum and climate-driven urgency.

Key Insights

• Aviation demand is set to triple by 2050, but emissions are rising while national emissions fall - creating a fundamental mismatch for governments and corporates.

• CORSIA offers little real reduction this decade; almost no planned measures will materially cut emissions before 2035.

• Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) must scale from 0.7% today to 65% by 2050, requiring a 4,500× increase and USD $48B in annual global investment - far above current levels.

• Nationally, Australia needs $1.5–4.5B in SAF infrastructure this decade but lacks clear mandates, policy certainty and investor confidence.

• Global standards suffer from “consensus paralysis” - ICAO and IATA cannot enforce meaningful action, leading to patchy, uneven regulation.

• Lack of transparency makes it difficult for corporates to compare airlines’ emissions, fleet efficiency and SAF use - fuelling greenwashing risks.

• Electric regional aviation (e.g., NZ trials of 5-seat, 400km-range aircraft) could transform short-haul networks, frequency and cost - but Australia risks becoming a late adopter.

• Corporates face rising compliance costs, brand risk and shrinking long-haul travel options if airlines can’t decarbonise fast enough.

• Snyder highlighted US challenges: limited federal support, capital-intensive tech that scares VCs, and the need to articulate a clear business case for sustainability.

• Reasons for optimism: airline-led SAF funds, falling valuations attracting investors, climate-driven urgency (wildfires, storms, insurance crises), and innovation in carbon markets, forecasting and electricity alternatives.

Takeaways

Aviation is entering a decade where sustainability pressure will intensify - for airlines, governments and the corporates who rely on them. SAF scale-up, transparent reporting, new technologies and strong national policy frameworks are essential to avoid the “doom loop” of rising costs and reduced travel. The message from both speakers: the crisis is real, the investment gap is enormous - but coordinated action, innovation and clearer communication can still shift the trajectory.

10:30 Global Gateways

IntroductionIn this visually rich keynote, Antoinette Nosopolis-Ericsson explored the evolving challenges of airport design — from climate pressures and rising passenger expectations to non-aeronautical revenue, rail integration and new technologies like biometrics and digital twins. Drawing on global projects including Hong Kong, Beijing, Riyadh, Marseille, Poland and Phnom Penh, she showed how “emotionally intelligent terminals” are created by blending sustainability, culture, technology and commercial resilience.

Key Insights

• Sustainability + resilience now define airport design - from heavy-mass shading in hot climates to thermal labyrinths, embodied-carbon modelling, water management and “build less” principles that repurpose existing structures.

• Passenger experience remains the core driver - intuitive wayfinding, accessibility, biophilic design and culturally grounded architecture create “emotionally intelligent terminals.”

• Airports must maximise non-aeronautical revenue, using retail design, mixed-use precincts and flexible commercial spaces to ensure long-term economic resilience.

• Technology shapes efficiency and footprint - biometrics reduce terminal size by up to 20%, digital twins optimise complex infrastructure, and facilities now plan for eVTOL, Hyperloop and autonomous systems.

• Integrated mobility is essential - next-gen airports (e.g., Poland’s CPK) combine rail, bus, aviation and retail hubs to reduce carbon-intensive ground travel and create seamless multimodal journeys.

Takeaways

Modern airports must balance human-centred experience with carbon-conscious design. From Riyadh’s souq-inspired terminal to Poland’s rail-anchored hub, Antoinette showed that the future of global gateways lies in flexible, place-based architecture powered by smart technology - always with the passenger at the heart.

11:45 Predictions

Introduction

In this data-rich storytelling session, James Hogben unpacked SAP Concur’s global research across 3,750 travellers, 700 travel managers and 600 CFOs. He explored rising costs, the new reality of “travel scrimping,” traveller sentiment, value expectations and how AI is shaping booking behaviour and program design.

Key Insights

• Budgets are holding or rising - travellers, travel managers and CFOs broadly believe travel spend will stay the same or increase despite cost pressures.

• Travel scrimping is widespread - 90% of travellers report small but noticeable cutbacks (fare classes, allowances, bleisure restrictions). 59% of CFOs have already implemented cuts; 10% plan more.

• Travellers will pay personally for comfort - 84% already spend their own money on better seats, rooms or sustainable options.

• Safety & experience concerns persist, with 90% saying global instability and poor service (e.g., overcrowded transport) influence their willingness to travel.

• Travel managers feel undervalued - 67% say their role isn’t understood; 86% of travellers think TMs could “do more,” often tied to demonstrating value.

• AI expectations diverge - 52% of travel managers trust AI for travel tasks; only 28% trust it for expenses. CFOs see AI as useful for error detection but not foolproof.

• Changing bookings is the #1 use case for AI - 39% now feel comfortable with AI for initial booking (up from 25% last year), signalling fast-growing acceptance.

• Generational differences affect expectations, but behaviour isn’t always predictable - younger users may avoid phone calls, preferring digital channels even when not typical of their cohort.

• Value storytelling matters - CFOs want clear linkage between travel spend and business outcomes, not just activity or compliance reporting.

• “How Might We” framing helps teams design better travel experiences - e.g., enabling infrequent travellers to feel confident using AI-driven booking tools.

Takeaways

Hogben’s predictions point to a year defined by value, visibility and behaviour change. Travellers want better experiences, CFOs want proof of ROI, and travel managers want recognition. AI adoption is accelerating, but trust and capability gaps remain. The winning programs will be those that communicate value clearly, adapt to small cutbacks without harming experience, and embrace AI where it genuinely improves outcomes.

12:20 Big Ideas

Moderator: Ben Wedlock (BCD Travel)Speakers: Andy Winchester (Bloomberg LP), Lisa Batchelor (Cochlear Limited), Timmo Rol (Neoke)

Introduction

This debate brought three speakers to the stage to defend provocative positions on the future of AI-driven booking, the evolution of travel policies, and the role of biometrics in seamless travel. With moderator Ben Wedlock challenging each stance, the audience saw the clash between visionary promise and pragmatic caution.

Key Insights

• AI-led booking will eclipse traditional OBTs - natural language, calendar integration, real-time rebooking and personal preference learning will reshape how trips are planned.

• AI boosts efficiency but introduces risks - hallucinations, data privacy gaps and compliance frameworks remain major barriers to fully autonomous travel booking.

• Younger generations and talent shortages will drive more flexible, nuanced policies, including clearer rules for bleisure, insurance and risk management.

• Policies will become more complex, not simpler, as data protection, sustainability, tax risk and multi-stakeholder oversight expand.

• Bleisure incentives may become a recruitment tool, particularly for Gen Z, provided safety, duty of care and cost separation are clear.

• Traditional travellers still need transitional support - many still print itineraries and prefer physical documentation.

• Biometrics already enable seamless airport journeys, but current models require travellers to hand over sensitive data to third parties, limiting trust and scale.

• The future lies in traveller-controlled identity wallets, where biometric and passport data stay on the user’s device and are shared only with consent.

• Global interoperability is the major hurdle - progress exists (Hong Kong–Narita trials), but adoption varies dramatically by country.

• Despite enthusiasm, governments and legacy processes (e.g., paper arrival cards) will slow full biometric enablement for many years.

Takeaways

The Big Ideas Debate highlighted a clear tension between what’s possible and what’s practical. AI-powered travel, flexible policies and biometric identity are accelerating fast - but adoption depends on data protection, cultural change, policy evolution and government cooperation. The future is coming, but getting there will take both bold thinking and pragmatic safeguards.

13:00 Benchmarking Trends (Air)

Introduction

In this session, Luxsho Logan from Cirium unpacked the real state of global and Australian aviation capacity using Cirium’s rich data set - spanning schedules, aircraft, traffic and fares over a 100-year history. He explored where capacity has rebounded, where it hasn’t, why passenger numbers lag their pre-COVID trajectory, and how aircraft orders and airport expansions point to the future shape of global air travel.

Key Insights

·      Global seat capacity surpassed 2019 levels in early 2023 and is tracking 9% higher by end-2025, but recovery is uneven across regions and routes.

·      Asia-Pacific short-haul capacity has only just returned to 2019 levels in 2025, with Japan, Korea, Thailand and Malaysia still lagging; Australian domestic capacity remains below pre-COVID.

·      Long-haul recovery varies widely: transatlantic and Europe–Asia routes are strong, while China’s international capacity remains heavily depressed due to geopolitical and economic factors.

·      Passenger numbers have recovered to 2019 volumes but remain ~20% below where they would have been without the pandemic’s disruption.

·      Australia has added 400,000 seats in five years - driven entirely by international growth - shifting the market from 37% international to 45% today.

·      Top international markets include New Zealand, Malaysia and Hong Kong, with Qatar’s sharp growth linked to a Virgin wet-lease; Qantas/Jetstar plus three major foreign carriers make up 50% of all seats.

·      Future growth will be powered by Asia-Pacific: 40% of all aircraft on order belong to the region, enabling new long-haul, non-stop routes and intensifying competition through next-gen aircraft and expanding mega-airports.

Takeaways

Aviation’s headline recovery masks a far more complex reality. Seat capacity is up, but regional disparities, lingering constraints in Asia, and a structural shift toward international flying are reshaping Australia’s aviation landscape - and influencing pricing. With Asia-Pacific driving the next wave of aviation growth through massive aircraft orders and ambitious airport expansions, travellers should expect more long-haul routes, fewer stopovers and fiercer competition. For corporates and travel planners, the message is clear: watch capacity trends closely, because they will determine both availability and the long-term price of travel.

14:15 Sustainable Travel

Presenter: Professor Susanne Becken (Griffith Uni), followed by panel discussion with Brett Giddings (Tasman Environmental Markets), Stuart Johnstone (Stralis Aircraft) and Jamison Warren (FCM Travel).

Introduction

In this session, Professor Susanne Becken challenged the audience with the physical realities of decarbonising aviation - from the scarcity of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to the limits of hydrogen, offsets, and current policy settings. A panel of industry experts then explored the role of government, corporates, virtual meetings, carbon pricing, hydrogen infrastructure and the behavioural shifts needed to meaningfully reduce emissions.

Key Insights

• Aviation is “extremely hard to decarbonise” - SAF is only 0.3% of total fuel use, and even 100% SAF still contains embedded fossil carbon; scaling to 2050 volumes requires unrealistic biomass and clean-energy inputs.

• Hydrogen offers better long-term potential than SAF, but requires massive clean-energy build-out, new aircraft and cost breakthroughs; SAF is seen as a short-term bridge, not the final solution.

• Carbon offsets are not a path to net zero - they can contribute positively but do not undo aviation emissions; integrity, transparency and reframing offsets as “contributions” are essential.

• Transport is the dominant problem - in some markets (e.g., Brazil), 80–97% of tourism emissions come from transport, not hotels or events, making flight reduction the most impactful lever.

• Corporate travel decisions shape the system - choosing lower-emission flights, setting carbon budgets, and limiting unnecessary trips can shift demand and influence airline behaviour.

• Government policy is essential, from SAF/ hydrogen investment to carbon pricing and mandatory disclosure, which moves climate risk from sustainability teams into CFO accountability.

• The biggest myth: “we have to travel.” Many trips can be avoided; virtual meetings increase efficiency but also paradoxically increase global business relationships - making policy, budgeting and culture critical.

Takeaways

Becken and the panel left the audience with a sobering message: the physics of aviation don’t bend to optimism. SAF alone won’t solve the problem, offsets can’t erase emissions, and true progress requires demand reduction, diversified technology investment, and policy that creates a level playing field. Corporates have significant power to shift the system - by choosing smarter, reporting honestly and pushing for innovation where it matters.

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